Bitcoin ‘pausing here for air’ likely, but another July ATH still possible

Consolidation Phase Expected

Bitcoin may be gearing up for a brief consolidation phase following its recent climb to new all-time highs, but there is still a possibility of another surge before the end of July, as suggested by Galaxy Digital’s head of franchise trading, Michael Harvey. Harvey believes that a period of consolidation around current price levels is likely, considering the significant rally and the new all-time high that Bitcoin recently reached. Despite this, he remains optimistic about the possibility of Bitcoin trending higher towards the end of the year.

Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Price

Harvey pointed out that for Bitcoin to reach new highs by the end of July, strong inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), continued accumulation by Bitcoin treasury firms, and a surge in retail demand are necessary. While there has been an increase in inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing accumulation by Bitcoin treasury firms, the level of retail demand remains uncertain. The recent rise in Coinbase’s ranking on the US Apple App Store could indicate growing retail interest, although Google search data suggests otherwise.

Potential Price Scenarios

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $122,884 before retracing to $118,098 at the time of publication. Harvey outlined a worst-case scenario where Bitcoin could drop below $110,000 due to profit-taking or weakness in the equity markets. However, he remains hopeful that Bitcoin could continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching new highs in the coming months. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital previously warned that the current price cycle may have limited expansion left, with a potential peak in October based on historical patterns.

Before Bitcoin broke its May all-time high of $112,000 on July 9, crypto analyst Rekt Capital warned that the current cycle may only have a few months of price expansion left, especially if it follows the same historical pattern from 2020. Rekt explained that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market will likely peak in October, which is 550 days after the Bitcoin halving in April 2024.